From January through June 2026, our team aggregated data from a range of industry sources covering U.S. residential real estate, commercial property investment, and private capital financing. This report compiles total market valuation by segment, key pricing and inventory indicators, commercial sector performance, and the expanding role of private capital in real estate deal financing. The tables below present the full dataset.
U.S. Real Estate Market Size by Segment, 2026
The U.S. real estate market is among the largest asset classes in the world. The table below reflects estimated market size across residential and commercial segments, based on the most recent 2026 data and published forecasts.
Figures represent two distinct metrics: total asset value (stock) for residential real estate, and annual market revenue/transaction volume (flow) for the overall market.
The U.S. Real Estate Market Size by Segment, 2026
| Segment | 2026 Estimated Size | Projected Size | CAGR | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Residential Real Estate (Total Asset Value) | $11.7 trillion | $18.9 trillion by 2034 | 6.18% | Straits Research |
| U.S. Commercial RE (Industry Revenue) | $1.60 trillion | N/A | 2.10% | IBISWorld |
| U.S. Commercial RE (Investment Activity) | $562 billion | N/A | +16% YoY | CBRE |
| Overall Global Real Estate Market (Annual Revenue/Transaction Volume) | $4.7 trillion | $8.45 trillion by 2034 | 7.6% | Straits Research |
| Northeast Region Share (Incl. NY/NJ) | 20.3% of national revenue | N/A | N/A | IMARC Group |
| New York State Growth Forecast | N/A | One of the fastest of major state markets | 3.10% CAGR through 2031 | Mordor Intelligence |
Key Findings
- U.S. residential real estate is estimated at approximately $11.7 trillion in 2026, supported by wage growth outpacing home price gains and easing mortgage rates in late 2025 that released pent-up demand. The sector is on track for steady growth at a 6.18% compound annual rate through 2034. This figure represents the cumulative value of all residential properties in the United States, not annual transaction volume.
- Commercial real estate investment is expected to reach $562 billion in 2026, a 16% increase over the prior year and nearly matching the pre-pandemic annual average. That recovery spans industrial, multifamily, retail, and select office assets. Q1 2026 saw $62.9 billion in investment sales transactions (Avison Young), representing a slower start to the year typical of the first quarter. CBRE's broader capital markets measure, which includes additional transaction types, reported $117 billion for Q1. The full-year projection of $562 billion assumes acceleration in Q2 through Q4 as institutional capital returns to the market.
- New York State carries one of the fastest growth forecasts among major markets, at a projected 3.10% CAGR through 2031. The Northeast region, including New York and New Jersey, accounts for 20.3% of total U.S. real estate revenue.
U.S. Housing Market Key Indicators, 2026
Price, inventory, and transaction velocity data reflect the conditions mortgage brokers and real estate investors are navigating in real time. The indicators below represent the most current available figures as of mid-2026.
The U.S. Housing Market Key Indicators, 2026
| Indicator | Value | Change | Period | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Existing Home Sale Price | $429,300 | 1.3% increase YoY | May 2026 | NAR |
| Median New Home Sale Price | $400,500 | -4.5% MoM | January 2026 | U.S. Census Bureau |
| Existing Home Sales (Annualized) | 4.17 million | +3.2% MoM | May 2026 | NAR / Trading Economics |
| Active Listings | 964,477 | +10% YoY | March 2026 | FRED / HousingWire |
| Active Listings vs. Pre-2020 Levels | Still 16–17% below | N/A | 2026 | FRED |
| Months of Supply (Existing Homes) | 4.5 months | Projected 4.6 by year-end | May 2026 | NAR |
| Average 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate | 6.3–6.5% | Elevated | 2026 | J.P. Morgan |
| U.S. Home Price Growth Forecast | 0% | Flat nationally | 2026 | J.P. Morgan |
| Annual Household Formation Rate | 1.5 million | Structural demand driver | 2022–2024 avg. | U.S. Census Bureau |
Key Findings
- Home prices are flat, not falling. J.P. Morgan projects 0% national price growth in 2026, driven by a standoff between elevated mortgage rates and structural demand from 1.5 million new households formed annually.
- Active inventory is up 10% year over year, but total listings remain 16 to 17% below pre-2020 levels. Supply is recovering, not recovered. Months of supply have increased to 4.5 months as of May 2026, indicating a gradual shift toward more balanced market conditions.
- Mortgage rates sitting at 6.3 to 6.5% continue to filter out buyers who need conventional financing. When rates sit this high, bank approval timelines and underwriting requirements cut out deals that still make financial sense. That is where private lenders close.
NY/NJ Housing Market Conditions, 2026
New York and New Jersey are among the tightest and highest-priced residential markets in the country. Both show price appreciation above the national rate while inventory improvements trail the national average.
The New York and New Jersey Housing Market Conditions, 2026
| Market / Metric | Value | Change (YoY) | Period | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJ Statewide Median Home Price (All Types) | $531,000 | +4.8% | February 2026 | DeFalco Realty / NJ REALTORS |
| NJ Median Home Price (All Types) | $563,000 | +3.3% | May 2026 | Redfin |
| NJ Single-Family Median Sale Price | $625,000 | +4.2% | May 2026 | NJ Real Estate Network |
| NJ Active Homes for Sale | Up 6.6% | +6.6% vs. national +0.2% | May 2026 | NJ Real Estate Network |
| NJ New Listings (Single-Family) | 8,453 | +4.8% | May 2026 | NJ Real Estate Network |
| NJ Average Days on Market | 55 days | Down slightly from January | February 2026 | DeFalco Realty |
| NJ Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.1% | Slight decline vs. late 2025 | February 2026 | Freddie Mac |
| Bergen County Median Home Price | $851,000 | +3.5% | June 2026 | NJ Real Estate Network |
| Bergen County Months of Supply | 1.6 months | Firmly seller's market | February 2026 | DeFalco Realty |
| NY State Forecast CAGR (2026–2031) | 3.10% | One of the fastest of major state markets | 2026–2031 | Mordor Intelligence |
Note: The figures above measure different segments and time periods. The $531,000 and $563,000 figures are statewide medians across all property types (single-family, condo, multi-family) for February and May 2026 respectively, reported by different sources. The $625,000 figure is the statewide median for single-family homes only, in May 2026. Single-family homes typically carry a higher median than the all-types blend, which accounts for most of the gap.
Key Findings
- New Jersey's median home price hit $625,000 for single-family homes in May 2026, up 4.2% year over year. Despite a modest increase in listings, active inventory is still growing faster than the national rate, yet seller conditions persist in high-demand counties like Bergen, where supply sits at just 1.6 months (February 2026) and median prices have reached $851,000 as of June 2026.
- New York State is projected to grow faster than most other major state markets through 2031, at a 3.10% CAGR. That growth is driven by sustained demand, tight supply, and ongoing private investment.
- Both markets reward speed. At 55 days average time on market in New Jersey and even tighter conditions across Bergen and Hudson counties, the advantage belongs to buyers and investors who can close without a bank's approval timeline.
Private Capital's Role in U.S. Real Estate Financing, 2026
Private lending has moved from a niche market segment to a mainstream way to finance deals for serious real estate investors. The data below tracks how private lending's share has grown.
The Private Lending Share of U.S. Real Estate Financing, 2026
| Metric | Value | Notes | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Private lenders' CRE origination share (2010–2020 avg.) | 4.6% | Pre-pandemic baseline | Invesco |
| Private lenders' CRE origination share (2021–present) | 8.6% | 87% increase over pre-pandemic average | Invesco |
| Private credit market size (2020) | $2.0 trillion | Starting point | Morgan Stanley |
| Private credit market size (2025) | $3.0 trillion | +50% in five years | Morgan Stanley |
| CRE debt maturing (2026–2028) | $3+ trillion | Refinancing demand pipeline | Trepp / Brookfield |
| Institutional investors' share of home purchases | 6.6% | Steady presence | ATTOM 2025 Year-End Data |
| Q1 2026 CRE transaction volume | $62.9 billion | 3,426 transactions; +18% YoY | Avison Young |
| Q1 2026 CRE transaction count | Up 7.71% YoY | Volume growing faster than count | Avison Young |
| Max LTC offered by private lenders | Up to 92.5% | Asset-backed, qualified borrowers | Stormfield Capital |
Key Findings
- Private lenders now hold 8.6% of CRE originations, an 87% increase over their pre-pandemic average. Banks pulled back on complex and time-sensitive deals after 2020. Private capital absorbed that share.
- More than $3 trillion in CRE debt is maturing between 2026 and 2028. A large share of that debt will not fit conventional bank refinancing. Wrong structure, wrong timeline, or wrong borrower profile. That pipeline represents active demand for private capital.
- The private credit market grew from $2 trillion to $3 trillion between 2020 and 2025, a 50% increase over five years. More capital means more competition among lenders.
Market Outlook
The data in this report points to a market that is growing. Inventory is recovering. The price floor is holding. And private lending is no longer a fallback. It is another option for serious investors to get deals done.
We Lend has been active in this market long enough to know the difference between a temporary rate cycle and a structural shift. We have funded over $700 million in New York and New Jersey across more than 1,400 loans. Zero principal loss. A 68% repeat borrower rate. A $20 million Webster Bank credit facility that backs every commitment we make. Our capital comes from friends and family, which means every loan carries real accountability from people with skin in the game.
Have a deal? Email us at info@welendllc.com or call +1 212 777 7780. We turn around term sheets in 2 to 4 hours.
Sources
We Lend Research Study. Author: We Lend LLC. New York, NY. June 2026.
Mordor Intelligence. "United States Residential Real Estate Market Size and Share Analysis." 2026. https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/residential-real-estate-market-in-usa
Expert Market Research. "United States Real Estate Market Size, Share and Outlook." June 2026. https://www.expertmarketresearch.com/reports/united-states-real-estate-market
CBRE. "U.S. Real Estate Market Outlook 2026." January 14, 2026. https://www.cbre.com/insights/books/us-real-estate-market-outlook-2026
IBISWorld. "Commercial Real Estate in the US Industry Analysis, 2026." May 2026. https://www.ibisworld.com/united-states/industry/commercial-real-estate/2009/
J.P. Morgan Global Research. "The Outlook for the US Housing Market in 2026." 2026. https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/real-estate/us-housing-market-outlook
IMARC Group. "United States Real Estate Market Size, Share, Trends and Forecast." 2026. https://www.imarcgroup.com/united-states-real-estate-market
National Association of Realtors. "Existing-Home Sales." June 2026. https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/existing-home-sales
U.S. Census Bureau. "New Residential Sales Press Release." January 2026. https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/current/index.html
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). "Housing Inventory: Active Listing Count in the United States." March 2026. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOUUS
HousingWire. "US Housing Inventory Growth 10 Percent 2026." 2026. https://www.housingwire.com/articles/us-housing-inventory-growth-10-percent-2026/
Realtor.com. "Monthly Housing Trends Report." April 2026. https://www.realtor.com/research/
Trading Economics. "United States Existing Home Sales." May 2026. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/existing-home-sales
Freddie Mac. "Primary Mortgage Market Survey." February 2026. https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
Redfin. "New Jersey Housing Market: House Prices and Trends." May 2026. https://www.redfin.com/state/New-Jersey/housing-market
Morgan Stanley. "Understanding Private Credit's Rapid Growth." 2025. https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/private-credit-outlook-considerations
Invesco. "Private Real Estate Lending: Why It's Growing." 2024.
Brookfield. "Mapping the Market: Why Private Real Estate Lending Is Compelling Now." 2024. https://www.brookfield.com/views-news/insights/mapping-market-why-private-real-estate-lending-compelling-now
Avison Young. "U.S. Commercial Real Estate Market Reports." Q1 2026. https://www.avisonyoung.us/market-reports
DeFalco Realty. "NJ Housing Market Spring 2026." March 2026. https://www.defalcorealty.com/blog/new-jersey-housing-market-report-march-2026/
NJ Real Estate Network / Rob Dekanski. "New Jersey Residential Real Estate Market Update." June 2026. https://www.newjerseyrealestatenetwork.com/blog/new-jersey-real-estate-market-update/
ATTOM. "2025 U.S. Year-End Housing Report." 2025.
Stormfield Capital. "Understanding Private Lending and Hard Money: What's Actually Changed in 2026." March 2026. https://stormfieldcapital.com/blog/private-lending-hard-money-guide-2026-real-estate-trends-2/
Tag(s):
Ruben Izgelov
Ruben is Managing Partner at We Lend LLC. With over a decade in the real estate industry – acquiring, flipping, developing and financing over $500 million worth in real estate – Ruben has quickly become a renowned real estate expert, speaker, and guide for many professionals in the industry. The most successful time...